2009 H1N1 Flu: Situation Update

November 6, 2009,
U.S. Situation Update
Centers for Disease Control

Each week CDC analyzes information about influenza disease activity in the United States and publishes findings of key flu indicators in a report called FluView.* During the week of October 25-31, 2009, a review of the key indicators found that influenza activity remained high in the United States. Below is a summary of the most recent key indicators:

* Visits to doctors for influenza-like illness (ILI) nationally decreased very slightly this week over last week after four consecutive weeks of sharp increases. While ILI declined slightly, visits to doctors for influenza-like illness remain at much higher levels than what is expected for this time of the year and parts of the country continue to see sharp increases in activity. It’s possible that nationwide ILI could rise again. ILI continues to be higher than what is seen during the peak of most regular flu seasons.

* Total influenza hospitalization rates for laboratory-confirmed flu are climbing and are higher than expected for this time of year. Hospitalization rates continue to be highest is younger populations with the highest hospitalization rate reported in children 0-4 years old.

* The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report continues to increase and has been higher for five weeks now than what is expected at this time of year. In addition, 18 flu-related pediatric deaths were reported this week; 15 of these deaths were confirmed 2009 H1N1, and three were influenza A viruses, but were not sub-typed. Since April 2009, CDC has received reports of 129 laboratory-confirmed pediatric 2009 H1N1 deaths and another 15 pediatric deaths that were laboratory confirmed as influenza, but where the flu virus subtype was not determined. (Editor's Note: It is reasonable to assume that the total number of Pediatric deaths due to Swine Flu [to date] is 144)

* Forty-eight states are reporting widespread influenza activity at this time; a decline of one state over last week. They are: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This many reports of widespread activity at this time of year are unprecedented during seasonal flu.

* Almost all of the influenza viruses identified so far continue to be 2009 H1N1 influenza A viruses. These viruses remain similar to the virus chosen for the 2009 H1N1 vaccine, and remain susceptible to the antiviral drugs Oseltamivir and Zanamivir with rare exception

2009 H1N1 Flu ("Swine Flu") and You

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
November 3, 2009 11:45 AM ET

In The News

2009 H1N1 Hospitalizations in People with Asthma

What does CDC know about hospitalizations among people with asthma who get 2009 H1N1 flu? (November 3, 2009)

People with asthma are at higher risk for serious complications from influenza (flu), including 2009 H1N1 flu. This can place people with asthma at higher risk of hospitalization when they have 2009 H1N1 flu. CDC monitors 2009-H1N1 related hospitalizations, including among people with asthma, through the Emerging Infections Program (EIP).

What is the Emerging Infections Program (EIP)? (November 3, 2009)

The EIP Influenza Project conducts surveillance for laboratory-confirmed influenza (flu) related hospitalizations in children (persons younger than 18 years) and adults in 62 counties covering 13 metropolitan areas of 10 states (for more information see the overview of influenza surveillance in the United States). Cases are identified by reviewing hospital laboratory and admission databases and infection control logs for children and adults with a documented positive influenza test* conducted as a part of routine patient care. EIP estimated hospitalization rates are reported every week during the flu season.

*Tests used by EIP to confirm influenza infection include viral culture, direct/indirect fluorescent antibody assay (DFA/IFA), real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR), or a commercial rapid antigen test.

What percentage of people hospitalized with 2009 H1N1 flu have asthma? (November 3, 2009)

According to Emerging Infections Program (EIP) data collected from April 15 through October 27, 2009, 32% of people hospitalized with 2009 H1N1 had asthma. Among adults hospitalized with 2009 H1N1, 30% had asthma, whereas 35% of hospitalized children with 2009 H1N1 had asthma.

What percentage of people hospitalized with asthma and 2009 H1N1 are admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU)? (November 3, 2009)

According to Emerging Infections Program (EIP) data collected from April 15 - October 27, 2009, 21% of hospitalized adults with asthma and a 2009 H1N1 infection and 18% of hospitalized children with asthma and a 2009 H1N1 infection were admitted to an ICU. No significant differences in the number of ICU admissions were noted between 2009 H1N1 infected people hospitalized with or without asthma.

What percentage of hospitalizations for 2009 H1N1 flu occur in different age groups in the United States? October 20

The percentage of hospitalizations for 2009 H1N1 flu in the United States varies by age group. From August 30, 2009 through October 10, 2009, states reported 4,958 laboratory-confirmed 2009 H1N1 hospitalizations to CDC. The percentage of 2009 H1N1 related hospitalizations that occurred among those 0 to 4 years old was 19%; among those 5 years to 18 years was 25%; among people 19 years to 24 years was 9%; among those 25 years to 49 years was 24%; among people 50 to 64 years was 15%; and among people 65 years and older was 7%. For a graphical representation of this data, please see the chart below.



What percentage of deaths for 2009 H1N1 flu occur in different age groups in the United States? October 20

The percentage of deaths for 2009 H1N1 flu in the United States varies by age group. From August 30, 2009 through October 10, 2009, states reported 292 laboratory-confirmed 2009 H1N1 deaths to CDC. The percentage of 2009 H1N1 related deaths that occurred among people 0 years to 4 years was 3%; among those 5 years to 18 years was 14%; among people 19 to 24 years was 7%; among people 25 to 49 years was 33%; among people 50-64 years was 32%; and among people 65 years and older was 12%. For a graphical representation of this data, please see the chart below.



2009 H1N1 Flu

What is 2009 H1N1 (swine flu)?

2009 H1N1 (sometimes called “swine flu”) is a new influenza virus causing illness in people. This new virus was first detected in people in the United States in April 2009. This virus is spreading from person-to-person worldwide, probably in much the same way that regular seasonal influenza viruses spread. On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization External Web Site Icon (WHO) signaled that a pandemic of 2009 H1N1 flu was underway.

Why is 2009 H1N1 virus sometimes called “swine flu”?

This virus was originally referred to as “swine flu” because laboratory testing showed that many of the genes in this new virus were very similar to influenza viruses that normally occur in pigs (swine) in North America. But further study has shown that this new virus is very different from what normally circulates in North American pigs. It has two genes from flu viruses that normally circulate in pigs in Europe and Asia and bird (avian) genes and human genes. Scientists call this a "quadruple reassortment" virus.

2009 H1N1 Flu in Humans


Are there human infections with 2009 H1N1 virus in the U.S.?

Yes. Human infections with 2009 H1N1 are ongoing in the United States. Most people who have become ill with this new virus have recovered without requiring medical treatment.
CDC routinely works with states to collect, compile and analyze information about influenza, and has done the same for the new H1N1 virus since the beginning of the outbreak. This information is presented in a weekly report, called FluView.

Is 2009 H1N1 virus contagious?

The 2009 H1N1 virus is contagious and is spreading from human to human.

How does 2009 H1N1 virus spread?

Spread of 2009 H1N1 virus is thought to occur in the same way that seasonal flu spreads. Flu viruses are spread mainly from person to person through coughing or sneezing by people with influenza. Sometimes people may become infected by touching something – such as a surface or object – with flu viruses on it and then touching their mouth or nose.
Photo of nurse and child

What are the signs and symptoms of this virus in people?

The symptoms of 2009 H1N1 flu virus in people include fever, cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, body aches, headache, chills and fatigue. Some people may have vomiting and diarrhea. People may be infected with the flu, including 2009 H1N1 and have respiratory symptoms without a fever. Severe illnesses and deaths have occurred as a result of illness associated with this virus.

How severe is illness associated with 2009 H1N1 flu virus?

Illness with 2009 H1N1 virus has ranged from mild to severe. While most people who have been sick have recovered without needing medical treatment, hospitalizations and deaths from infection with this virus have occurred.

In seasonal flu, certain people are at “high risk” of serious complications. This includes people 65 years and older, children younger than five years old, pregnant women, and people of any age with certain chronic medical conditions. About 70 percent of people who have been hospitalized with this 2009 H1N1 virus have had one or more medical conditions previously recognized as placing people at “high risk” of serious seasonal flu-related complications. This includes pregnancy, diabetes, heart disease, asthma and kidney disease.

Young children are also at high risk of serious complications from 2009 H1N1, just as they are from seasonal flu. And while people 65 and older are the least likely to be infected with 2009 H1N1 flu, if they get sick, they are also at “high risk” of developing serious complications from their illness. See People at High Risk of Developing Flu-Related Complications for more information about who is more likely to get flu complications that result in being hospitalized and occasionally result in death.

CDC laboratory studies have shown that no children and very few adults younger than 60 years old have existing antibody to 2009 H1N1 flu virus; however, about one-third of adults older than 60 may have antibodies against this virus. It is unknown how much, if any, protection may be afforded against 2009 H1N1 flu by any existing antibody.

How does 2009 H1N1 flu compare to seasonal flu in terms of its severity and infection rates?

With seasonal flu, we know that seasons vary in terms of timing, duration and severity. Seasonal influenza can cause mild to severe illness, and at times can lead to death. Each year, in the United States, on average 36,000 people die from flu-related complications and more than 200,000 people are hospitalized from flu-related causes. Of those hospitalized, 20,000 are children younger than 5 years old. Over 90% of deaths and about 60 percent of hospitalization occur in people older than 65.

When the 2009 H1N1 outbreak was first detected in mid-April 2009, CDC began working with states to collect, compile and analyze information regarding the 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak, including the numbers of confirmed and probable cases and the ages of these people. The information analyzed by CDC supports the conclusion that 2009 H1N1 flu has caused greater disease burden in people younger than 25 years of age than older people. At this time, there are relatively fewer cases and deaths reported in people 65 years and older, which is unusual when compared with seasonal flu. However, pregnancy and other previously recognized high risk medical conditions from seasonal influenza appear to be associated with increased risk of complications from this 2009 H1N1. These underlying conditions include asthma, diabetes, suppressed immune systems, heart disease, kidney disease, neurocognitive and neuromuscular disorders and pregnancy.

How long can an infected person spread this virus to others?

People infected with seasonal and 2009 H1N1 flu shed virus and may be able to infect others from 1 day before getting sick to 5 to 7 days after. This can be longer in some people, especially children and people with weakened immune systems and in people infected with the new H1N1 virus.

Prevention & Treatment

What can I do to protect myself from getting sick? Oct 8

This season, there is a seasonal flu vaccine to protect against seasonal flu viruses and a 2009 H1N1 vaccine to protect against the 2009 H1N1 influenza virus (sometimes called “swine flu”). A flu vaccine is the first and most important step in protecting against flu infection. For information about the 2009 H1N1 vaccines, visit H1N1 Flu Vaccination Resources. For information about seasonal influenza vaccines, visit Preventing Seasonal Flu With Vaccination.

There are also everyday actions that can help prevent the spread of germs that cause respiratory illnesses like the flu.

Take these everyday steps to protect your health:

Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.

* Wash your hands often with soap and water. If soap and water are not available, use an alcohol-based hand rub.*
* Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread this way.
* Try to avoid close contact with sick people.
* If you are sick with flu-like illness, CDC recommends that you stay home for at least 24 hours after your fever is gone except to get medical care or for other necessities. (Your fever should be gone without the use of a fever-reducing medicine.) Keep away from others as much as possible to keep from making others sick.

Other important actions that you can take are:

* Follow public health advice regarding school closures, avoiding crowds and other social distancing measures.
* Be prepared in case you get sick and need to stay home for a week or so; a supply of over-the-counter medicines, alcohol-based hand rubs * (for when soap and water are not available), tissues and other related items could help you to avoid the need to make trips out in public while you are sick and contagious.

What is the best way to keep from spreading the virus through coughing or sneezing?

If you are sick with flu-like illness, CDC recommends that you stay home for at least 24 hours after your fever is gone except to get medical care or for other necessities. (Your fever should be gone without the use of a fever-reducing medicine.)
Keep away from others as much as possible. Cover your mouth and nose with a tissue when coughing or sneezing. Put your used tissue in the waste basket. Then, clean your hands, and do so every time you cough or sneeze.

If I have a family member at home who is sick with 2009 H1N1 flu, should I go to work?

Employees who are well but who have an ill family member at home with 2009 H1N1 flu can go to work as usual. These employees should monitor their health every day, and take everyday precautions including covering their coughs and sneezes and washing their hands often with soap and water, especially after they cough or sneeze. If soap and water are not available, they should use an alcohol-based hand rub.* If they become ill, they should notify their supervisor and stay home. Employees who have an underlying medical condition or who are pregnant should call their health care provider for advice, because they might need to receive influenza antiviral drugs. For more information please see General Business and Workplace Guidance for the Prevention of Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Flu in Workers.

What is the best technique for washing my hands to avoid getting the flu?

Washing your hands often will help protect you from germs. CDC recommends that when you wash your hands -- with soap and warm water -- that you wash for 15 to 20 seconds. When soap and water are not available, alcohol-based disposable hand wipes or gel sanitizers may be used.* You can find them in most supermarkets and drugstores. If using gel, rub your hands until the gel is dry. The gel doesn't need water to work; the alcohol in it kills the germs on your hands.

What should I do if I get sick?

For information about what to do if you get sick with flu-like symptoms this season, see What To Do If You Get Sick: 2009 H1N1 and Seasonal Flu. A downloadable flyer Adobe PDF file containing this information also is available HERE...

What are “emergency warning signs” that should signal anyone to seek medical care urgently?

In children:

* Fast breathing or trouble breathing
* Bluish skin color
* Not drinking enough fluids
* Not waking up or not interacting
* Being so irritable that the child does not want to be held
* Flu-like symptoms improve but then return with fever and worse cough
* Fever with a rash

In adults:

* Difficulty breathing or shortness of breath
* Pain or pressure in the chest or abdomen
* Sudden dizziness
* Confusion
* Severe or persistent vomiting

Are there medicines to treat 2009 H1N1 infection?

Yes. There are drugs your doctor may prescribe for treating both seasonal and 2009 H1N1 called “antiviral drugs.” These drugs can make you better faster and may also prevent serious complications. This flu season, antiviral drugs are being used mainly to treat people who are very sick, such as people who need to be hospitalized, and to treat sick people who are more likely to get serious flu complications. Your health care provider will decide whether antiviral drugs are needed to treat your illness. Remember, most people with 2009 H1N1 have had mild illness and have not needed medical care or antiviral drugs and the same is true of seasonal flu.

What is CDC’s recommendation regarding "swine flu parties"?

"Swine flu parties" are gatherings during which people have close contact with a person who has 2009 H1N1 flu in order to become infected with the virus. The intent of these parties is for a person to become infected with what for many people has been a mild disease, in the hope of having natural immunity 2009 H1N1 flu virus that might circulate later and cause more severe disease.

CDC does not recommend "swine flu parties" as a way to protect against 2009 H1N1 flu in the future. While the disease seen in the current 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak has been mild for many people, it has been severe and even fatal for others. There is no way to predict with certainty what the outcome will be for an individual or, equally important, for others to whom the intentionally infected person may spread the virus.

CDC recommends that people with 2009 H1N1 flu avoid contact with others as much as possible. If you are sick with flu-like illness, CDC recommends that you stay home for at least 24 hours after your fever is gone except to get medical care or for other necessities. (Your fever should be gone without the use of a fever-reducing medicine.) Stay away from others as much as possible to keep from making others sick.

Contamination & Cleaning

How long can influenza virus remain viable on objects (such as books and doorknobs)?

Studies have shown that influenza virus can survive on environmental surfaces and can infect a person for 2 to 8 hours after being deposited on the surface.

What kills influenza virus?

Influenza virus is destroyed by heat (167-212°F [75-100°C]). In addition, several chemical germicides, including chlorine, hydrogen peroxide, detergents (soap), iodophors (iodine-based antiseptics), and alcohols are effective against human influenza viruses if used in proper concentration for a sufficient length of time.

*What if soap and water are not available and alcohol-based products are not allowed in my facility? Updated on Sept 14

If soap and water are not available and alcohol-based products are not allowed, other hand sanitizers that do not contain alcohol may be useful.

What surfaces are most likely to be sources of contamination?

Germs can be spread when a person touches something that is contaminated with germs and then touches his or her eyes, nose, or mouth. Droplets from a cough or sneeze of an infected person move through the air. Germs can be spread when a person touches respiratory droplets from another person on a surface like a desk, for example, and then touches their own eyes, mouth or nose before washing their hands.

How should waste disposal be handled to prevent the spread of influenza virus?

To prevent the spread of influenza virus, it is recommended that tissues and other disposable items used by an infected person be thrown in the trash. Additionally, persons should wash their hands with soap and water after touching used tissues and similar waste.

What household cleaning should be done to prevent the spread of influenza virus?

To prevent the spread of influenza virus it is important to keep surfaces (especially bedside tables, surfaces in the bathroom, kitchen counters and toys for children) clean by wiping them down with a household disinfectant according to directions on the product label.

How should linens, eating utensils and dishes of persons infected with influenza virus be handled?

Linens, eating utensils, and dishes belonging to those who are sick do not need to be cleaned separately, but importantly these items should not be shared without washing thoroughly first.

Linens (such as bed sheets and towels) should be washed by using household laundry soap and tumbled dry on a hot setting. Individuals should avoid "hugging" laundry prior to washing it to prevent contaminating themselves. Individuals should wash their hands with soap and water or alcohol-based hand rub immediately after handling dirty laundry.

Eating utensils should be washed either in a dishwasher or by hand with water and soap.

Exposures Not Thought to Spread 2009 H1N1 Flu

Can I get infected with 2009 H1N1 virus from eating or preparing pork?

No. 2009 H1N1 viruses are not spread by food. You cannot get infected with novel HIN1 virus from eating pork or pork products. Eating properly handled and cooked pork products is safe.

Is there a risk from drinking water?

Tap water that has been treated by conventional disinfection processes does not likely pose a risk for transmission of influenza viruses. Current drinking water treatment regulations provide a high degree of protection from viruses. No research has been completed on the susceptibility of 2009 H1N1 flu virus to conventional drinking water treatment processes. However, recent studies have demonstrated that free chlorine levels typically used in drinking water treatment are adequate to inactivate highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza. It is likely that other influenza viruses such as 2009 H1N1 would also be similarly inactivated by chlorination. To date, there have been no documented human cases of influenza caused by exposure to influenza-contaminated drinking water.

Can 2009 H1N1 flu virus be spread through water in swimming pools, spas, water parks, interactive fountains, and other treated recreational water venues?

Influenza viruses infect the human upper respiratory tract. There has never been a documented case of influenza virus infection associated with water exposure. Recreational water that has been treated at CDC recommended disinfectant levels does not likely pose a risk for transmission of influenza viruses. No research has been completed on the susceptibility of 2009 H1N1 influenza virus to chlorine and other disinfectants used in swimming pools, spas, water parks, interactive fountains, and other treated recreational venues. However, recent studies have demonstrated that free chlorine levels recommended by CDC (1–3 parts per million [ppm or mg/L] for pools and 2–5 ppm for spas) are adequate to disinfect avian influenza A (H5N1) virus. It is likely that other influenza viruses such as 2009 H1N1 virus would also be similarly disinfected by chlorine.

Can 2009 H1N1 influenza virus be spread at recreational water venues outside of the water?

Yes, recreational water venues are no different than any other group setting. The spread of this 2009 H1N1 flu is thought to be happening in the same way that seasonal flu spreads. Flu viruses are spread mainly from person to person through coughing or sneezing of people with influenza. Sometimes people may become infected by touching something with flu viruses on it and then touching their mouth or nose.

Note: Much of the information in this document is based on studies and past experience with seasonal (human) influenza. CDC believes the information applies to 2009 H1N1 (swine) viruses as well, but studies on this virus are ongoing to learn more about its characteristics. This document will be updated as new information becomes available.

US rushing swine flu vaccine clinical trials

Editor's NOTE:

This piece is included in way of background to help demonstrate that the timing of the initial "Swine Flu" presentation last year demanded an expedited vaccine development phase and an accelerated vaccine clinical trial phase.

As mentioned in my "Primer" HERE... the data from these clinical trials is incomplete to date and must be carefully monitored. Nevertheless, members of high-risk groups should strongly consider getting the vaccine when it is made available as to date the reported complication rate appears to be acceptably low.

--Dr. J. P. Hubert

By: Deborah Shlian
July 28, 2009
Miami Health Care Examiner

As the swine flu continues to rapidly move across the globe, the World Health Organization has stopped asking governments to report new cases, claiming the effort is too great now that the disease has become so widespread. Instead, the focus is on developing strategies for preventing what some experts fear will be a new, more serious outbreak of swine flu in the fall and winter months just when seasonal flu arrives.

Pharamceutical companies are rushing to develop a vaccine by early fall. Clinical trials have already started in Australia. Canadian trials will begin by September or early October. Federal health officials announced that the first US clinical trials will begin in August and will be conducted in what Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease described as “a two month compressed time frame” in which about 2400 volunteers will be tested. The initial tests will be of vaccines made by Sanofi-Pasteur, a European company, and CLS Biotherapies, an Australian company that has supplied seasonal flu shots in the US for years. A third company, Novartis, is conducting separate trials for FDA licensing.

Adult volunteers for the clinical trials will be recruited at 8 separate sites including Emory University in Atlanta, the University of Maryland School of Medicine in Baltimore, Vanderbilt University in Nashville, Baylor College of Medicine in Houston, Children’s Hospital Medical Center in Cincinnati, Group Health Cooperative in Seattle, the University Iowa in Iowa City, and St. Louis University.

Initial studies will determine whether one or two 15-microgram doses of A/H1N1 swine flu vaccine are needed to produce an immune response in healthy adult volunteers (18 to 64 years) and elderly people (65 years and older).

The doses will be given 21 days apart. If there are early indications that the vaccines are safe, similar trials in healthy children (six months to 17 years) will begin. According to Fauci, later tests may include pregnant women, who are at higher risk for swine flu complications.

Vaccines will be given to different sets of volunteers before, after or at the same time as the seasonal flu vaccine. Every volunteer will be monitored for negative side effects including allergic reactions to the chicken eggs that the vaccines are grown in.

Researchers will also look out for Guillain-Barré syndrome , a rare reaction to any vaccine which can cause fever, serious nerve damage and muscle weakness. The 1976 vaccination of 40 million people after a swine flu outbreak in Fort Dix, N. J., was halted after some people developed the syndrome. However, the vaccine was never proved to be the cause. According to a 2009 worldwide literature review, approximately one person in 100,000 develops Guillain-Barré syndrome for unknown reasons. Unfortunately because the US vaccine trials are so small, it is unlikely to pick up such a rare side effect. “You’d have to vaccinate several hundred thousand or millions of people to do that,” Fauci said.

In addition to checking for adverse reactions, volunteers will have their blood tested about three weeks after the shot to see if antibodies to the virus have developed. Those with high levels of antibodies to the specific strain should be immune to the infection or at the very worst, get only a mild case of the flu if exposed to it.

Once these trials are completed and the vaccine is determined to be safe and effective, health officials can then make specific recommendations as to how to conduct a vaccination program and who should be vaccinated. (Editor's emphasis throughout)

Assuming things go according to schedule, the hope is to have as many as 160 million doses ready in the US by mid October and then 80 million doses a month later. Depending on how much vaccine is available and assuming most individuals will require two shots, it could take until March to vaccinate the full U.S. population of 300 million people.

None of the first trials will test a vaccine containing an adjuvant, which is an additive -generally an oil-water emulsion- that stimulates the immune system to react more strongly and helps to stretch the number of doses of vaccine needed. Adjuvants are common in veterinary vaccines and tend to cause more side effects. They are not now used in flu shots in the United States. But they are “not off the board,” Fauci said. “We’ve developed a mix-and-match protocol for them, but we want to see the data on vaccine safety first.” According to a report from Reuters, the U.S. Health and Human Services Department has contracted for 120 million doses of adjuvant which they might use if the flu mutates into a more dangerous form and the demand for more shots than are available results.

Federal advisers plan a meeting tomorrow to discuss who should receive the vaccination.

World Health Organization says one swine flu shot is enough for everyone but kids

By: Thomas H. Maugh II
October 30, 2009 | 9:50 am
Los Angeles Times

One dose of the vaccine against pandemic H1N1 influenza should be enough for everyone except children under the age of 10, and the vaccine is proving to be safe, the World Health Organization said this morning. Dr. Marie-Paule Kieny, the agency's vaccines chief, told a telephone news conference that data from clinical trials that have already been conducted indicate that one dose of vaccine is sufficient to provoke a strong immune response against the swine flu virus. The United States and some other countries have already concluded that one dose is sufficient, but others have questioned the conclusion. The European Medicines Agency said last week that the swine flu vaccines it had licensed should be given in two doses at least three weeks apart because the current data were "too limited" to allow it to recommend only one dose.

Experts had initially feared that two doses of the vaccine would be required for everyone because preliminary experiments hinted that the virus did not provoke a strong immune reaction. The conclusion that only one dose is necessary effectively doubles the amount of vaccine available -- a crucial result for those developing countries which are having problems obtaining the vaccines. The WHO said earlier this week that it would begin distributing 200 million doses to such countries.

The sole exception to the new recommendation is young children, who should continue to receive two doses. That recommendation is not surprising, because a similar requirement is in place for seasonal flu shots. Researchers have found in the past that some residual immunity from previous vaccinations boosts the body's response to a flu vaccine, which is why adults need only one dose. But children who have not previously been exposed to a flu vaccine need two shots to get the proper protection.

Kieny also said that the new swine flu vaccine appears to be safe, as authorities have been saying all along. "All the reports received to date following vaccination -- either in clinical trials or in mass vaccination campaigns -- have shown that the safety profile of these pandemic vaccines is good and is very similar to the one which is known for seasonal flu vaccine," she said. "Nothing special in terms of adverse events has been noted."

Kieny said that it was safe to vaccinate against both seasonal and swine flu simultaneously, as long as at least one of the vaccines is the injectable form. That follows U.S. guidelines, which say that two doses of the intranasal FluMist vaccines should not be given at the same time.

In other flu news:

-- At a Philadelphia meeting of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, officials of the group strengthened their recommendation that shots against both types of flu should be mandatory for healthcare workers and that unvaccinated doctors and nurses should either wear masks or not deal with patients. "All of us and all our colleagues who work in direct patient care should be immunized," said Dr. Ann Gershon of the Columbia University Medical Center, the group's president. "We owe it to our patients." The group said voluntary educational programs have failed to raise the vaccination rate above 70%, putting patients at risk.

-- Intravenous antiviral drugs are proving useful in severe illness caused by swine flu infections, experts told physicians Thursday in a conference call for physicians sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The Food and Drug Administration last week approved emergency use of the intravenous antiviral Peramivir and a related drug, Zanamivir, even though clinical trials of the drugs have not been completed. Dr. Stacene Maroushek, an infectious-disease specialist at Hennepin County Medical Center in Minneapolis, described the case of a 17-year-old boy who became sick at the Minnesota State Fair and who was failing rapidly and was expected to die, even though he was receiving Tamiflu through a nasogastric tube. Physicians gave him IV Peramivir for five days, and he began improving on the second day of treatment. Although he is still weak, he is improving with therapy and rehabilitation and is now at home, she said. The 25-day hospitalization cost about $300,000.

Dr. Aditya Gaur of St. Jude's Children's Research Hospital in Memphis described the case of a 10-year-old girl who was immunocompromised because she was undergoing treatment for leukemia. She was initially treated with Tamiflu and discharged, but 12 days later was rehospitalized with pneumonia. Tests showed her strain of the swine flu was resistant to Tamiflu. She was given IV Zanamivir and her symptoms have improved substantially, Gaur said. Experts said that it is crucial that the IV drugs be continued for at least 10 days to make sure the virus is eradicated.

NOTE:

The above 2 case reports indicate that some resistance has developed to Tamiflu to date but so far not to Zanamivir. This is consistent with other medical data on Swine Flu resistance to Tamiflu. While most cases of Swine Flu will respond to Tamiflu some will not. Zanamivir has had no resistance problem to date.

--Dr. J. P. Hubert

Pestilence

New Disease: "Swine Flu" a Primer

Over the past several months the increasing incidence of "Swine Flu" in humans has become apparent. In the United States, the Obama administration has declared the 2009 Swine Flu a pandemic and formally instituted a state of Federal Emergency by which to deal with it more effectively.

"Swine Flu" is an influenza which was originally thought to have originated in pigs that for some unknown reason managed to cross the trans-species barrier to humans. However, according to the CDC:

"This virus was originally referred to as 'swine flu' because laboratory testing showed that many of the genes in this new virus were very similar to influenza viruses that normally occur in pigs (swine) in North America. But further study has shown that this new virus is very different from what normally circulates in North American pigs. It has two genes from flu viruses that normally circulate in pigs in Europe and Asia and bird (avian) genes and human genes. Scientists call this a 'quadruple reassortmant' virus."

"The virion is pleomorphic, the envelope can occur in spherical and filamentous forms. In general the virus's morphology is spherical with particles 50 to 120 nm in diameter, or filamentous virions 20 nm in diameter and 200 to 300 (-3000) nm long. There are some 500 distinct spike-like surface projections of the envelope each projecting 10 to 14 nm from the surface with some types (i.e. hemagglutinin esterase (HEF)) densely dispersed over the surface, and with others (i.e. hemagglutinin (HA)) spaced widely apart. The major glycoprotein (HA) is interposed irregularly by clusters of neuraminidase (NA), with a ratio of HA to NA of about 4-5 to 1.

Influenza viruses contain 7 to 8 segments of linear negative-sense single stranded RNA. The total genome length is 12000-15000 nucleotides which encode for 11 proteins (HA, NA, NP, M1, M2, NS1, NEP, PA, PB1, PB1-F2, PB2). The best-characterised of these viral proteins are hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, two large glycoproteins found on the outside of the viral particles. Neuraminidase is an enzyme involved in the release of progeny virus from infected cells, by cleaving sugars that bind the mature viral particles. By contrast, hemagglutinin is a lectin that mediates binding of the virus to target cells and entry of the viral genome into the target cell. The hemagglutinin (H) and neuraminidase (N) proteins are targets for antiviral drugs. These proteins are also recognised by antibodies, i.e. they are antigens. The responses of antibodies to these proteins are used to classify the different serotypes of influenza A viruses, hence the H and N in H5N1." For more see THIS...

"Swine Flu" now known as 2009 H1N1 Influenza, causes disease in human beings. It is spread through person to person contact--primarily as a result of contamination from the oral/nasal secretions of infected individuals. The most common symptoms include: fever, cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, body aches, headache, chills, fatigue and sometimes, diarrhea and vomiting.

"Swine Flu" or 2009 H1N1 Influenza (also referred to as Novel H1N1 Influenza) is a subtype of Type A influenza as is type-ordinaire seasonal flu. To date 2009 H1N1 Flu appears to be slightly more virulent than seasonal flu but can usually be treated successfully with antiviral medications in patients who become extremely ill. A definitive health statement on the ultimate severity/significance of this new type of flu would be premature at this time due to lack of intermediate and long-range follow-up data.

A vaccine which is purportedly specific for this virus has been developed in an "accelerated fashion" given the sudden appearance of this "quadruple reassortmant" virus in humans. While it is said by federal health officials to be safe, there is very little clinical follow-up data so far in patients to whom it has been administered. At present (October 26, 2009) there is a limited supply (less than 30 million doses) of this vaccine nation-wide and the CDC has instituted a recommended protocol for initial administration until additional doses become available. For more information on flu vaccines see THIS...

It is possible to test for the presence of "Swine Flu" (2009 H1N1 Flu) utilizing laboratory investigation. A number of rapid diagnostic tests (RDT's) [rapid antigen testing] with variable degrees of sensitivity and specificity are currently available (at present they are unable to differentiate between subtypes of influenza and are associated with a significant false negative rate) as well as more sophisticated tests involving viral cultures, immunofluorescence assays, and polymerase chain reaction analysis based on nucleic acid sequencing. Sophisticated laboratory tests for influenza allow characterization by viral subtype but require several days to complete. The RDT's generally are available within the hour.

Currently, questions remain with respect to the ratio of the prevalence of 2009 H1N1 flu vs seasonal flu in the US population. According to the CDC however:

"As of September 2009, more than 99% of circulating influenza viruses in the United States are 2009 H1N1. Therefore, at this time, if your health care provider determines that you have the flu, you most likely have 2009 H1N1." (Editor's note: This assumes that there has been no pre-selection of patients subjected to detailed laboratory testing. In one instance some 60% of those tested have been found to have no flu at all. It is possible that due to CDC recommendations, only the higher-risk patients have been tested utilizing sophisticated assays capable of differentiating between the sub-types of influenza. The effect would be to artificially raise the incidence of “swine flu.” This issue needs to be more carefully detailed in the literature and the results widely circulated.)

Previous vaccination(s) for seasonal flu are not likely to be effective against Swine flu due to the different RNA sequences involved. The antibody production after vaccination for seasonal flu is different from that which is produced in response to vaccination for "Swine Flu."

To date (October 17, 2009) 411 patients with laboratory confirmed cases of "Swine Flu" have died in the United States. In the absence of pre-selection of the higher risk patients for sophisticated laboratory testing, this would seem to represent a higher mortality rate for documented cases of 2009 H1N1 Influenza as compared with seasonal flu. It is unclear however whether this represents an artificially elevated rate due to pre-selection of higher-risk patients for detailed laboratory testing. In other words, we simply do not know the value of the denominator (the total number of patients who have contracted 2009 H1N1 Flu).

According to the CDC:

“The proportion of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) based on the 122 Cities Report has increased and has been higher than what is expected at this time of year for two weeks. In addition, 11 flu-related pediatric deaths were reported this week; 9 of these deaths were confirmed 2009 H1N1, and two were influenza A viruses, but were not sub-typed. Since April 2009, CDC has received reports of 95 laboratory-confirmed pediatric 2009 H1N1 deaths and another 7 pediatric deaths that were laboratory confirmed as influenza, but where the flu virus subtype was not determined.” For more see THIS…

The US Center for Disease Control (CDC) currently recommends vaccination against Swine Flu for high-risk patients including pregnant women, children up to 18, the debilitated, immunocompromised, those with other serious systemic illness(s) and health care professionals only. For more information see THIS...It should be noted however that response to vaccination in general is quite variable and dependent upon multiple factors enumerated in the appendix below. At this early stage of the pandemic the efficacy of the new "Swine Flu" vaccine is unknown. The CDC has indicated that no serious complications/side-effects have arisen in patients who have received the new vaccine thus far.

Anyone strongly suspected of having Swine Flu and who is a member of any of the high-risk groups of patients delineated above should be considered for the early administration of antiviral medication such as Zanamivir which to date lacks any evidence of viral resistance. The CDC generally recommends treatment with Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) although some minimal resistance to it has developed. Unfortunately, 2009 H1N1 Flu is resistant to Amantadine and Rimantadine. The CDC has also indicated that antiviral treatment regimens may change in the future according to new antiviral resistance or viral surveillance information.

Due to the unavoidable delay in obtaining sophisticated laboratory confirmation of "Swine Flu" it is unnecessary to confirm the diagnosis prior to instituting anti-viral drug therapy but it would be wise for all such patients to have viral cultures, immunofluorescence assays, or polymerase chain reaction analysis done in order to successfully document that the patient has "Swine Flu" rather than seasonal flu. This will assist health care professionals in determining the prevalence, severity and therapeutic response in patients with 2009 H1N1 Flu. For the latest Flu update from the CDC see THIS...

Suggestions:

1.) Minimize unnecessary close personal contact particularly in large groups.

2.) Always practice good hygiene including frequent washing of hands with antiseptic soap and water. Avoid touching the mouth and nose with hands. Do not drink or eat from articles used by others. Do not share food or drink with others once it has been dispensed. Always cover the mouth and nose when coughing or sneezing preferably with a disposable tissue.

3.) Anyone who is ill with symptoms and signs suggesting influenza should remain at home until at least 24 hours after the cessation of fever.

4.) Individuals at high risk (especially children) for developing complications from 2009 H1N1 Flu or otherwise concerned persons should seek medical attention as early as possible to allow their physician the option of initiating antiviral therapy at a time when it is most likely to be effective.

5.) Consider being vaccinated against type-ordinaire seasonal flu as the benefit/risk ratio favors being vaccinated.

6.) Carefully monitor further developments with regard to the prevalence and severity of 2009 H1N1 Flu including the potential toxicity and efficacy of vaccines (incompletely known at this time). As further data and the national supply of vaccines become more widely available, consider being vaccinated if the benefit/risk ratio is acceptably established, especially in the Pediatric age-group which at present is at greater risk of severe "Swine-Flu" related illness and death.

*Appendix: How effective is the inactivated influenza vaccine?

"Overall, in years when the vaccine and circulating viruses are well-matched, influenza vaccines can be expected to reduce laboratory-confirmed influenza by approximately 70% to 90% in healthy adults <65 years of age. Several studies have also found reductions in febrile illness, influenza-related work absenteeism, antibiotic use, and doctor visits.

In years when the vaccine strains are not well matched to circulating strains, vaccine effectiveness can be variably reduced. For example, in a study among persons 50-64 years during the 2003-04 season, when the vaccine strains were not optimally matched, inactivated influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza was 60% among persons without high-risk conditions, and 48% among those with high risk conditions, but it was 90% against laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalization (Herrera, et al Vaccine 2006). A study in children during the same year found vaccine effectiveness of about 50% against medically diagnosed influenza and pneumonia without laboratory confirmation (Ritzwoller, Pediatrics 2005). However, in some years when vaccine and circulating strains were not well-matched, no vaccine effectiveness can be demonstrated in some studies, even in healthy adults (Bridges, JAMA 2000). It is not possible in advance of the influenza season to predict how well the vaccine and circulating strains will be matched, and how that match may affect the degree of vaccine effectiveness." For more from the CDC on this issue see THIS...

Incompletely Answered Questions:

1. How widespread will the pandemic become (prevalence)?
2. How ill (virulence) will patients with “Swine Flu” become?
3. How effective (efficacy) will the new “Swine Flu” vaccine be?
4. What if any side-effects/complications will occur after mass “Swine Flu” vaccine administration and how frequently (vaccine complication rate) will they occur? (Preliminary data available only)
5. What percentage of patients who have laboratory documented “Swine Flu” experience serious illness or death (Morbidity/Mortality) and is their a predilection for certain age groups? (Preliminary data strongly suggest an increased incidence and severity in small children under age 2.

--Dr. J. P. Hubert

Vatican Bidding to Get Anglicans to Join Its Fold

By RACHEL DONADIO and LAURIE GOODSTEIN
Published: October 20, 2009
The New York Times

VATICAN CITY — In an extraordinary bid to lure traditionalist Anglicans en masse, the Vatican said Tuesday that it would make it easier for Anglicans uncomfortable with their church’s acceptance of female priests and openly gay bishops to join the Roman Catholic Church while retaining many of their traditions.

Anglicans would be able “to enter full communion with the Catholic Church while preserving elements of the distinctive Anglican spiritual and liturgical patrimony,” Cardinal William J. Levada, the prefect for the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, said at a news conference here.

It was unclear why the Vatican made the announcement now. But it seemed a rare opportunity, audaciously executed, to capitalize on deep divisions within the Anglican Church to attract new members at a time when the Catholic Church has been trying to reinvigorate itself in Europe.

The issue has long been close to the heart of Pope Benedict XVI, who for years has worked to build ties to those Anglicans who, like conservative Catholics, spurn the idea of female and gay priests.

Catholic and Anglican leaders sought on Tuesday to present the move as a joint effort to aid those seeking conversion. But it appeared that the Vatican had engineered it on its own, presenting it as a fait accompli to the Most Rev. Rowan Williams, archbishop of Canterbury and the spiritual head of the Anglican Communion, only in recent weeks. Some Anglican and Catholic leaders expressed surprise, even shock, at the news.

The move could have the deepest impact in England, where large numbers of traditionalist Anglicans have protested the Church of England’s embrace of liberal theological reforms like consecrating female bishops. Experts say these Anglicans, and others in places like Australia, might be attracted to the Roman Catholic fold because they have had nowhere else to go.

If entire parishes or even dioceses leave the Church of England for the Catholic Church, experts and church officials speculated, it could set off battles over ownership of church buildings and land.

Pope Benedict has said that he will travel to Britain in 2010.

In the United States, traditionalist leaders said they would be less inclined than their British counterparts to join the Catholic Church, because they have already broken away from the Episcopal Church and formed their own conservative Anglican structures (though some do allow women to be priests).

The Vatican’s announcement signals a significant moment in relations between two churches that first parted in the Reformation of the 16th century over theological issues and the primacy of the pope.

In recent decades, the Anglican Communion and the Roman Catholic Church have sought to heal the centuries of division. Some feared that the Vatican’s move might jeopardize decades of dialogue between Catholics and Anglicans by implying that the aim was conversion.

The Very Rev. David Richardson, the archbishop of Canterbury’s representative to the Vatican, said he was taken aback.

“I don’t see it as an affront to the Anglican Church, but I’m puzzled by what it means and by the timing of it,” he said. “I think some Anglicans will feel affronted.”

The decision creates a formal universal structure to streamline conversions that had previously been evaluated case by case. The Vatican said that it would release details in the coming weeks, but that generally, former Anglican prelates chosen by the Catholic Church would oversee Anglicans, including entire parishes or even dioceses, seeking to convert.

Under the new arrangement, the Catholic practice that has allowed married Anglican priests to convert and become Catholic priests would continue. (There have been very few such priests). But only unmarried Anglican bishops or priests could become Catholic bishops.

Cardinal Levada acknowledged that accepting large numbers of married Anglican priests while forbidding Catholic priests to marry could pose problems for some Catholics. But he argued that the circumstances differed.

Under the new structure, former Anglicans who become Catholic could preserve some elements of Anglican worship, including hymns and other “intangible” elements, Archbishop J. Augustine Di Noia, the Vatican’s deputy chief liturgical officer, said at the news conference.

Cardinal Levada said that the Vatican had acted in response to many requests from Anglicans since the Church of England ordained women in the 1990s, and, more recently, when it faced what he called “a very difficult question” — the ordination of openly gay clergy and the celebration of homosexual unions.

He said that 20 to 30 bishops and hundreds of other people had petitioned the Vatican on the matter in recent years.

In the United States, disaffected conservatives in the Episcopal Church, the American branch of Anglicanism, announced in 2008 that they were reorganizing as the Anglican Church in North America.

Bishop Martyn Minns, a leader of that group, welcomed the pope’s decision. “It demonstrates his conviction that the divisions in the Anglican Communion are very serious and these are not things that are going to get papered over,” he said.

However, both Bishop Minns and Archbishop Robert Duncan, primate of the Anglican Church in North America, said that they did not expect many conservative Anglicans to accept the offer because the theological differences were too great.

“I don’t want to be a Roman Catholic,” said Bishop Minns. “There was a Reformation, you remember.”

In Britain, the Rev. Rod Thomas, the chairman of Reform, a traditionalist Anglican group, said, “I think it will be a trickle of people, not a flood.”

But he said that a flood could in fact develop if the Church of England did not allow traditionalists to opt out of a recent church decision that women could be consecrated as bishops.

Some said the move would probably not win over traditionalist Anglicans in Africa.

“Why should any conservative break away from a church where the moral conservatives represent the overwhelming mass of opinion, such as in Nigeria?” said Philip Jenkins, a professor at Pennsylvania State University and an expert in the Catholic Church’s history in Africa and Asia.

The plan was announced at simultaneous news conferences at the Vatican and in London.

The Vatican’s archbishop of Westminster, Vincent Nichols, and Archbishop Williams of the Anglican Church issued a joint statement in which they said that the new structure “brings to an end a period of uncertainty for such groups who have nurtured hopes of new ways of embracing unity with the Catholic Church.”

In London, Archbishop Williams minimized the impact of the announcement on relations between the two churches. “It would not occur to me to see this as an act of aggression or a statement of no confidence, precisely because the routine relationships that we enjoy as churches will continue,” he said.

NOTE:

Oddly enough, in the wake of Vatican II there is very little difference between the Conciliar Church and any of the Anglican groups under discussion in any case. Barring Divine Intervention those who convert en-masse may find that the Conciliar church adopts the practices for which they left the Anglican "church."

The problem is lack of Roman Catholic orthodoxy and the Novus Ordo Missae, not the lack of "union" among the various sects including the Conciliar Vatican. The Traditional Latin Mass of Pope Pius V should be reinstituted, the Novus Ordo completely cast aside and the traditional (orthodox) Roman Catholic Church teachings restored. It is the only way to cure what ails the world.

--Dr. J. P. Hubert

Stephen Hand of Traditional Catholic Reflections and Reports on Apostasy

The Great Apostasy

St. Francis de Sales: "The revolt and separation must come…the Sacrifice shall cease and…the Son of Man shall hardly find faith on earth…All these passages are understood of the affliction which Antichrist shall cause in the Church…But the Church… shall not fail, and shall be fed and preserved amidst the deserts and solitudes to which She shall retire, as the Scripture says, (Apoc. Ch. 12),” ---The Catholic Controversy

St. Alphonsus Ligouri: “It is true [the Mass] will cease on earth at the time of Antichrist: the Sacrifice of the Mass is to be suspended…according to the prophecy of Daniel, (Dan. 12:11).” St. Alphonsus comforts Christ's scattered flock: “the Son of God, Eternal Priest, will always continue to offer Himself to God, the Father, in Heaven as an Eternal Sacrifice.” ---The Holy Eucharist

Cardinal Manning: “The Holy Fathers who have written upon the subject of Antichrist and the prophecies of Daniel — all of them unanimously — say that in the latter end of the world, during the reign of Antichrist, the Holy Sacrifice of the altar will cease.”--- The Present Crisis of the Holy See

St. Bernard: "We have seen 'the abomination of desolation standing in the holy place,’ (Matt. 34:15)…He has seated himself in the Chair of Peter. The holy place he covets, not for its holiness, but for its height. He has, I say, got possession of the holy place [but] not through the merit of his life. The election whereof he boasts is but a cloak for his malice. To call it an election at all is an impudent lie.” --Rev. Albert J. Luddy, The Life and Teachings of St. Bernard.

St. Jerome: "The abomination of desolation can be taken to mean as well every perverted doctrine. When we see such a thing stand in the holy place, that is in the Church and pretend it is God, we must flee…” --Breviary Lesson for the 24th and Last Sunday after Pentecost

Ven. Anne Catherine Emmerich: "I had another vision of the great tribulation. It seems to me that a concession was demanded from the clergy which could not be granted. I saw many older priests, especially one, who wept bitterly. A few younger ones were also weeping. But others, and the lukewarm among them, readily did what was demanded. It was as if people were splitting into two camps."

"I saw that many pastors allowed themselves to be taken up with ideas that were dangerous to the Church. They were building a great, strange, and extravagant Church. Everyone was to be admitted in it in order to be united and have equal rights: Protestants, Catholics, sects of every description. Such was to be the new Church ... But God had other designs."

"I saw again the strange big church that was being built there in Rome. There was nothing holy in it...I saw again the new and odd-looking church which they were trying to build. There was nothing holy about it ... People were kneading bread in the crypt below ... but it would not rise, nor did they receive the body of our Lord, but only bread. Those who were in error, through no fault of their own, and who piously and ardently longed for the Body of Jesus were spiritually consoled, but not by their communion."---The Life of Anne Catherine Emmerich, by Very Rev. Carl E. Schmoger, C.SS.R, Vol. ii, pages, pages 292-29

“The 'abomination of desolation' has been wrought in many Catholic churches by heretics and apostates who have broken altars, scattered relics of martyrs and desecrated the Blessed Sacrament. At the time of the French Revolution a lewd woman was seated upon the altar of the cathedral in Paris and worshiped as the goddess of reason. Such things but faintly foreshadow the abominations that will desecrate churches in those sorrowful days when Antichrist will seat himself at the altar to be adored as God,” (Rev. E.S. Berry, “The Apocalypse of St. John,” 1906)

To say the events HERE... are sad is to say the very least. One could think much more.

When the apostasy is universal, only the universal pastor can confront it and cleanse Christ's Church. If he does not, but allows heresies to flourish, well...and the Church in consequence shatters into remnants of believers holding to sacred tradition and scripture, changing nothing, as St. Vincent of Lerins admonished. Only the Church of Christ can know this pain and universal an apostasy, foretold long ago.

--Stephen Hand

Thoughts on the Universal Apostasy by Catholic Writers/Mystics

"The apostasy of the city of Rome from the vicar of Christ and its destruction by Antichrist may be thoughts so new to many Catholics, that I think it well to recite the text of theologians of greatest repute. First Malvenda, who writes expressly on the subject, states as the opinion of Ribera, Gaspar Melus, Biegas, Suarrez, Bellarmine and Bosius that Rome shall apostatise from the faith, drive away the Vicar of Christ and return to its ancient paganism. ...Then the Church shall be scattered, driven into the wilderness, and shall be for a time, as it was in the beginning, invisible hidden in catacombs, in dens, in mountains, in lurking places; for a time it shall be swept, as it were from the face of the earth. Such is the universal testimony of the Fathers of the early Church."---Henry Edward Cardinal Manning, The Pope and the Antichrist: The Present Crisis of the Holy See Tested by Prophecy, (Saint Croix du Mont, France: Tradibooks, 2007), p. 18--see recommended resource section of this site for further details.

Prophecy of Restorer Pope One Day?

A prophecy of Bl. Anna Maria Taigi:

"All the enemies of the Church, secret as well as known, will perish during the [three days of chastising] darkness, with the exception of some whom God shall soon after convert. The air shall be infected by demons, who will appear under all sorts of hideous forms.

Blessed candles will preserve from death, as well as prayers to the Blessed Virgin and the holy angels. After the darkness, St. Peter and St. Paul shall descend to preach throughout the earth.

A great light emanating from them shall rest upon him whom God has chosen for the future Pope (the Lumen in Coelo of St. Malachi's well-known prophecy).

St. Michael, appearing on earth, shall chain up Satan until the times of the preaching of Antichrist.

Religion will everywhere extend its empire. Russia will be converted, as will also England and China ; and all nations will rejoice in contemplating this splendid triumph of the Church. Then will he accomplished the prophecy of our Lord: ' There shall be one fold and one shepherd.'

P. Calixte observes that the Blessed Joseph Labre had made a similar prediction, and had also said that it would be transferred before the end of the world to France."

Student Stabs Resource Officer at School: Officer Kills Student

Student dead, officer stabbed at Carolina Forest High School
Tonya Root - troot@thesunnews.com
Friday, October 16, 2009

A 16-year-old male student was fatally shot this morning after an altercation with a resource officer at Carolina Forest High School, according to school officials.

The 11th-grade student, whose name was not released, died as a result of the incident, said Horry County Coroner Robert Edge.

The resource officer is being treated at Conway Hospital and is listed in good condition, said Julie Rajotte, spokeswoman for Conway Medical Center.

The student came to the school at 8:20 a.m. and asked to talk to the school's resource officer, Britton said.

The student was armed with a knife and got in a ''tussle'' with the resource officer, Britton said.

The student was shot and stabbed during the altercation and the officer was also injured, Britton said.

''Everything is under control at this point,'' Kegler said at 9:30 a.m. ''Nobody is in danger.''

The incident occurred at the F House area of the school.

On May 18, 2006, Natalia Holmes, an 18-year-old Carolina Forest student, was stabbed to death by her boyfriend as he was dropping her off at school. Edwin Cornelius was sentenced to life in prison after being pleading guilty of a murder charge last year.

More Indonesian Earthquakes

Another Indonesian earthquake occurred this am which measured 6.1 on the Richter scale. The larger quake of roughly a week ago is thought to have resulted in over 1000 deaths and tens of thousands of damaged buildings. It has required a major humanitarian effort. It is not clear whether the earthquake from this morning has caused any significant death or destruction.

See THIS... for more.


Indonesia will face a far more devastating earthquake, seismologists warn
'We don't think this was the big one,' says a scientist in the region. In Padang, rescue workers give up the search for more survivors and concentrate on recovering bodies and clearing rubble.

Los Angeles Times World
By Charles McDermid
October 6, 2009

Reporting from Padang, Indonesia - Expect a far more powerful earthquake than last week's magnitude 7.6 temblor to hit Indonesia's devastated Padang area in the next few decades.

That's the word from a team of leading seismologists, who said the worst is yet to come, although they cautioned that predicting the timing of earthquakes is an inexact science at best.

After a three-day review of seismic evidence using global-positioning equipment, scientists with the Earth Observatory of Singapore, or EOS, found that the earthquake that hit the Indonesian city of Padang did little to relieve the stored tension at the juncture of two tectonic plates.

The EOS team believes that the eventual energy release could result in an earthquake close to the scale of the magnitude 9 monster that triggered the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, killing more than 200,000 in a dozen countries.

"We don't think this was the big one," said Paramesh Banerjee, technical director of EOS, a $700-million government-funded institute for the study of tsunamis, volcanoes, earthquakes and climate. "It can happen any time -- now, in 20 years or more."

On Monday, rescue workers ended their search for life beneath the rubble, shifting their focus instead to helping survivors in the area around Padang, a port city of 900,000 on Sumatra island. But their efforts were hampered by torrential rain.

The government's official death toll stood at 603, although the United Nations said 1,100 people died and other disaster specialists said the number will probably climb to several thousand after more corpses are unearthed.

Gagah Prakoso, a spokesman for the Indonesian Search and Rescue Agency, told reporters that chances of anyone surviving this long without food and water were slim, prompting the decision to concentrate on finding bodies and cleaning up the rubble.

Indonesia faces a huge rebuilding task. More than 88,000 houses and 285 schools were destroyed in 10 districts, according to the U.N. and Indonesia's Disaster Management Agency, with an additional 100,000 public buildings and 20 miles of road damaged.

Seismologists said the earthquake occurred in the collision zone where the Indo-Australian Plate dives beneath the Sunda Plate, which is below Padang and the Indonesian province of Aceh, which was battered by the 2004 earthquake and tsunami.

"When one plate goes beneath another it's called 'subduction,' " Banerjee said. "But it doesn't go smoothly. It gets stuck and then it slips. This slip is an earthquake."

According to Richard Briggs of the U.S. Geological Survey, these plates converge, colliding at a few inches a year, with the stress stored for decades or centuries before being released suddenly as large, damaging earthquakes. The magnitude of the earthquake depends on the size of the fault and how much the fault slips during a sudden rupture.

In the case of the Sunda megathrust fault, which parallels the west coast of Sumatra, the 850-mile northern portion slipped as much as 100 feet in 2004, triggering the tsunami. In 2005, a 210-mile portion directly to the south slipped more than 40 feet during the magnitude 8.7 earthquake that devastated the Nias, Banyak and Simeulue islands.

The portion of the fault next in line, offshore Padang, has yet to slip despite the most recent quake, according to the EOS.

The idea that a mammoth earthquake is coming to Padang is nothing new to paleoseismologist and EOS director Kerry Sieh, who has been studying the regions' tectonics for the last 18 years. Sieh's team has identified the sequence of Padang-area earthquakes using GPS data, historical records and the growth patterns of coral based on its uranium content.

Since the December 2004 tsunami, the scientists have produced papers and statements and spoken to local officials about the risk. With partial financing from the California Institute of Technology, where he had been a professor, Sieh printed posters in English and Indonesian and took them to outlying islands to discuss with village elders and fishermen what he believed was an inevitable earthquake and subsequent tsunami. "They were interested, but we weren't taken seriously," he said.

The city of Padang has tried to foster earthquake and tsunami preparedness by providing public service announcements, seminars and evacuation routes. Still, Wednesday's quake brought a high toll in lives and buildings -- a fact exacerbated by the area's relative poverty and questionable construction standards.

Vice Gov. H. Marlis Rahman acknowledged that the area needs to prepare for the next earthquake. But experts warn that apathy and human nature often take their course.

"The problem is we're too busy with laundry, taking kids to school, catching fish to feed your family to worry about low-probability, low-risk hazards," Sieh said. But, he added, the risk of not preparing for the inevitable is great.

"The people in charge of Padang have had lots of things going on," he said, "but they've got a lot more now."

Eschatological Vision of Anne Catherine Emmerich: Battle Within the Church

From friend of this site, Stephen Hand, HERE...
Why Catholics resist...



"I had another vision of the great tribulation. It seems to me that a concession was demanded from the clergy which could not be granted. I saw many older priests, especially one, who wept bitterly. A few younger ones were also weeping. But others, and the lukewarm among them, readily did what was demanded. It was as if people were splitting into two camps."

"I saw that many pastors allowed themselves to be taken up with ideas that were dangerous to the Church. They were building a great, strange, and extravagant Church. Everyone was to be admitted in it in order to be united and have equal rights: Protestants, Catholics, sects of every description. Such was to be the new Church ... But God had other designs."

"I saw again the strange big church that was being built there in Rome. There was nothing holy in it. I saw this just as I saw a movement led by Ecclesiastics to which contributed angels, saints, and other Christians. But there in the strange big church all the work was being done mechanically according to set rules and formulae. Everything was being done according to human reason ...I saw all sorts of people, things, doctrines, and opinions. There was something proud, presumptuous, and violent about it, and they seemed very successful. I did not see a single Angel nor a single saint helping in the work. But far away in the background, I saw the seat of the cruel people armed with spears, and I saw a laughing figure which said: 'Do build it as solid as you can; we will pull it to the ground.'"

The Bread Would Not Rise

"I saw again the new and odd-looking church which they were trying to build. There was nothing holy about it ... People were kneading bread in the crypt below ... but it would not rise, nor did they receive the body of our Lord, but only bread. Those who were in error, through no fault of their own, and who piously and ardently longed for the Body of Jesus were spiritually consoled, but not by their communion."

"Then my Guide (Jesus) said: 'This is Babel.'"

"I saw deplorable things: they were gambling, drinking, and talking in church; they were also courting women. All sorts of abominations were perpetrated there. Priests allowed everything and said Mass with much irreverence. I saw that few of them were still godly... All these things caused me much distress."

"I was in such distress that I cried out to Jesus with all my might, imploring His mercy... He said, among other things, that this translation of the church from one place to another meant that she would seem to be in complete decline. But she would rise again; even if there remained but one Catholic, the church would conquer again because she does not rest on human counsels and intelligence..."

Apron, trowel

"I saw St. Peter's. A great crowd of men was trying to pull it down whilst others constantly built it up again. Lines connected these men one with another and with others throughout the whole world. I was amazed at their perfect understanding."

"The demolishers, mostly apostates and members of different sects, broke off whole pieces and worked according to rules and instructions. They wore white aprons bound with blue riband. In them were pockets and they had trowels stuck in their belts. The costumes of the others were various."

"There were among the demolishers distinguished men wearing uniforms and crosses. They did not work themselves but they marked out on the wall with a trowel where and how it should be torn down. To my horror, I saw among them Catholic Priests. Whenever the workmen did not know how to go on, they went to a certain one in their party. He had a large book which seemed to contain the whole plan of the building and the way to destroy it."

"They marked out exactly with a trowel the parts to be attacked, and they soon came down. They worked quietly and confidently, but slyly, furtively and warily. I saw the Pope praying, surrounded by false friends who often did the very opposite to what he had ordered..." (The awakened restoring pope to come)

---from The Life of Anne Catherine Emmerich by Rev. Carl E. Schmoeger, C.SS.R; maranatha. The venerable Anne Catherine Emmerich (1774 - 1824) was a German Augustinian nun, stigmatist (bore the wounds of Christ), and miracle-worker

The Victim Soul (Venerable Anne-Catherine Emmerich) Prophetically Spoke of a Pope in Exile

"I see the Holy Father in great distress. He lives in another palace and receives only a few in his presence. If the wicked party know their own great strength, they would even now have made an attack. I fear the Holy Father will suffer many tribulations before his death, for I see the black counterfeit church gaining ground, I see its fatal influence on the public. The distress of the Holy Father and of the Church is really so great that one ought to pray to God day and night. I have been told to pray much for the Church and the Pope...The people must pray earnestly for the extirpation (Rooting out, destruction) of the dark church." -Prophetic Vision of Anne Catherine Emmerich (1774-1824 A.D.) Augustinian Nun, Stigmatist from the book, The Life of Anne Catherine Emmerich, by Very Rev. Carl E. Schmoger, C.SS.R, Vol. ii, pages (Ibid, pages 292-293)

Kids arrested after teen is set on fire

By: Mike Aquilia

Deerfield Beach, Florida - As 15-year-old Michael Brewer lies sedated in a hospital bed with burns over 65 percent of his body, Broward Sheriff's deputies say they've arrested three juveniles who intentionally set him on fire.

Brewer's mother, Valerie says, "We just don't understand why anyone would do this."

The attack happened outside the Lime Tree Village Apartments, 429 SE 13 Ct., in Deerfield Beach around 3:15 p.m. on Monday afternoon. A witness said she saw a group of boys running in the complex so she went outside to investigate.

"Somebody threw something at (Michael)," Providencia Maldonado said. "I don't know if it was gas or alcohol or something and the next thing you know the kid is on fire."

After the attack, Michael ripped off his burning T-shirt and ran to a nearby pool. A neighbor also grabbed a fire extinguisher to put out the flames.

Neighbor Jennifer Nielsen, a former lifeguard, heard screaming and ran outside to help. She said she comforted Michael as he screamed in agony.

"I was like who did this to you? What happened?" she said. "He said someone threw something on me. He couldn't even say liquid. He said someone threw something on me, so it was a surprise attack."

Nielsen said Brewer's top layer of skin was peeling off, his eyebrows were gone as was the hair on the right side of his head.

"I'm still shaken up," she said. "But I'm happy I was there for that child. I just want that child to be OK."

Brewer was meeting some friends at the apartment complex when deputies say someone doused him with an accelerant and burned him.

His sister believes this dates back to an argument that began Sunday when a teenager tried to steal a bike belonging to Michael's father at the family's home.

"I told the 14 year old kid, 'Please leave the premises, you're not welcome here.' He then turned around and started threatening me and my children," Durkee said.

Durkee said Michael, who loves skateboarding and video games, is a good kid who needs his family more than ever.

"I believe he will be able to make it if everybody just prays for him," Durkee said.

The teen had been airlifted to Broward General Medical Center, but it was determined he should be taken to Jackson Memorial Hospital. The pain of the burns was so intense that he had to be placed on a medically induced coma.

Michael's mother said her son will need numerous skin grafts and will likely spend months in the hospital recovering.


Four Teens Accused Of Stabbing Kimberly Cates To Death

October 8, 2009
by Morbid

MONT VERNON, New Hampshire – Residents of the small, hilly town of Mont Vernon are in a state of shock after four teens entered a home to rob it, and attacked a 41-year-old mother and her 11-year-old daughter. Using a machete and a knife, Kimberly Cates was attacked while she lay in her bed and killed by multiple sharp injuries to the head, torso, left arm, and left leg. Her daughter survived the attack although she suffered severe stabbing injuries and spent hours in surgery. The attack was a completely random one, Cate’s home chosen simply because it was isolated. “They picked the house at random because it was in an isolated area,” prosecutor N. William Delker said today during the teens’ arraignments in Milford District Court. “Before they entered the home, all four defendants were aware that the intent was to kill the occupants.”

At around 4 a.m. Sunday, Steven Spader, 17; Christopher Gribble, 19; William Marks, 18; and Quinn Glover, 17 have all been arrested for their part in the crimes. Spader and Gribble were charged with first degree murder, attempted murder, and conspiracy to commit first degree murder. Marks and Glover were charged with burglary, conspiracy to commit burglary, and armed robbery – although prosecutors claim that Glover and Marks were both armed with a deadly weapon, and Glover was fully aware that the occupants of the home would be killed.

Cate’s husband was away on business but flew back to be with his daughter in the hospital. She is expected to survive, but she will obviously have some major issues because of this. What a pity that these idiots could not have broken into a tweaker couple’s house or something. By all reports, Kimberly was an awesome lady. John Quinlan, a Mont Vernon selectman, and friend of the Cates family for five years described 42-year-old mother and nurse Kimberly Cates as an unusually friendly, happy woman devoted to her daughter.

“She was very much the extrovert,” Quinlan said. “The mother and daughter were inseparable. They were almost best friends as well. That’s what I think makes this worse because you can’t imagine anyone having a bad thought about her or a gripe with her.”

Some information on the teens have come to light as friends all report the same thing. Four kids who all fell into a downward spiral over recent years. Spader was a longtime Boy Scout who in recent months grew increasingly distant and depressed. He has a lengthy criminal record including threatening teens with a tire iron after ramming their car, charges of possessing stolen stereo equipment, disorderly conduct, resisting arrest, and marijuana possession charges. Most of these within recent months.

Gribble was a home-schooled Mormon who was planning to become a church missionary. Like a lot of kids raised in that environment (not all, people) he ended up rebelling X10 becoming a dark and brooding figure itching to lash out and become very fond of knives. It is reported that Marks is insecure and angst-ridden teen, and took a turn for the worse after meeting Spader. The same goes for Glover, a musician who performed in coffee shops, sang in the chorus, and starred in a school production of Cabaret (Cabaret reviews).

While New Hampshire does have a death penalty, these boys are not eligible for it. According to the New Hampshire attorney general’s office, the crime does not fit within the state’s definition of a capital murder. The death penalty is only on the table when a law enforcement or judicial officer is killed in the line of duty, in the case of murder-for-hire, if the accused is currently serving a life sentence or when the murder occurs in connection with a kidnapping, drug crime or sexual assault.

Whatever. I am sure that this case will continue to get more heinous as some of these teens turn on each other (my bet is on Marks) and the details on exactly what transpired in that home is revealed. To be able to attack a defenseless woman in her home while she slept in her bed is one thing, but to be able to do the same to an 11-year-old girl? Seriously, fuck ‘em. Fuck their childhoods.


"...and because wickedness is multiplied, most men's love will grow cold." (Matt. 24: 12)

Over 270 killed in India floods

October 5, 2009
CNN

By Harmeet Shah Singh

NEW DELHI, India (CNN) -- The number of dead in devastating floods triggered by torrential rains in India has risen to at least 271, and about a million people have fled their homes, officials said Monday.

At least 192 people have died in the southern state of Karnataka, its disaster-management secretary H.V. Parshwanath told CNN.

More than 450,000 people there have been housed in 1,330 relief camps as authorities completed rescue operations in most of the flooded zones in the state, he said.

"The focus is now mainly on relief," Parshwanath said, adding that rains have now eased in Karnataka.

In neighboring Andhra Pradesh, authorities put the death toll at 51. Some 531,000 people have been evacuated to safety, with more half of them now sheltering in relief camps, said Dinesh Kumar, the commissioner of the state's disaster-monitoring department.

India has deployed the military to help with relief and rescue in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

More than a dozen teams of naval divers have been sent to the two flood-hit states, the country's defense ministry said.

Air force planes and helicopters have also been dropping food packets in the submerged regions.

The military has been able to rescue 1,336 people so far, it added.

Flood waters were now receding in two of the five worst hit districts of Andhra Pradesh, disaster official Kumar said.

But floodwaters from a local river might submerge the remaining three, he warned.

Flooding also killed at least 25 people in Maharashtra state, officials said. Three others died because of lightning strikes, said S.C. Mohanty, director of Maharashtra's disaster-management department.

About 3,000 people have been displaced because of flooding, he told CNN. Thousands of people die each year in India during seasonal monsoon rains.

More than 1,100 had been killed in monsoon-triggered flooding in different parts of the country as of last month, according to the disaster-management division of the federal home ministry.


"And there will be signs in sun and moon and stars, and upon the earth distress of nations in perplexity at the roaring of the sea and the waves, men fainting with fear and with foreboding of what is coming on the world." (Luke 21: 25-26)

"War, Rumors of Wars"

Obama and the Nobel Prize: When War becomes Peace, When the Lie becomes the Truth
By Michel Chossudovsky
Global Research,
October 11, 2009

...The diabolical nature of this military project was outlined in the 2000 Project for a New American Century (PNAC)....War against the Truth

This is a war against the truth. When war becomes peace, the world is turned upside down. Conceptualization is no longer possible. An inquisitorial social system emerges.

An understanding of fundamental social and political events is replaced by a World of sheer fantasy, where "evil folks" are lurking. The objective of the "Global War on Terrorism" which has been fully endorsed by Obama administration has been to galvanize public support for a Worldwide campaign against heresy.

MORE...

NOTE:

The description given above by the author is chillingly similar to biblical warnings which predict that a time will come when right is called wrong and wrong is said to be right. In many ways, the time has arrived.

--Dr. J. P. Hubert

Sumatra earthquake rescue operation scaled back

Rescue workers have started scaling down their efforts in the Indonesian port city of Padang as hopes of finding any more survivors from last week's earthquake faded.


Padang Alai four days after the earthquake

Telegraph UK
By Peter Foster in Padang
Published: 1:42PM BST 04 Oct 2009

Indonesia's health minister estimated the death toll from the 7.6 magnitude quake would reach 3,000 when those listed as 'missing' were included among the dead. The confirmed total now stands at 1,300.

As relief efforts began to concentrate on delivering food, medicine and shelter to survivors, many of whom are living outside in remote villages in the Sumatran jungle, heavy machinery was moved in to clear fallen buildings in the city. MORE...